Analysts' forecast error: a robust prediction model and its short‐term trading profitability

This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the investment horizon salient to trading based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings forecasts. An econometric framework is proposed that accommodates the stylized fact of extreme values in the forecast error series. We find that between 1998 and 2010, the strategy of taking a long (short) position in stocks with the most pessimistic (optimistic) I/B/E/S forecast has an annual risk‐adjusted return of 16.56 per cent before transaction costs. The robust method used to predict this pessimism (optimism) and the one‐week investment horizon are the key drivers of the strategy's profitability.     

Creating social and environmental value through integrated thinking: International evidence

Integrated thinking (IT) is a managerial mindset increasingly discussed in the context of value creation. Through the lens of systems theory, this study examines how the degree to which IT is embedded in a firm's strategy and day-to-day business processes is associated with the firm's social and environmental value creation. Using a broad international dataset, we find strong evidence that our measure of IT is positively related to a firm's sustainability performance (SP), which we use to operationalize social and environmental value creation (or erosion). Our results also reveal that the increase in a firm's SP might come at the cost of a short-term decrease in financial performance (FP). We find no indication, however, that IT induces a trade-off between SP and long-term FP. Integrated thinking appears to stipulate long-term financial value creation instead. We further explore moderating factors within the organizational and institutional context of our sample firms and highlight implications for society, corporate practice, and policymaking.